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In the context of the global economic prospects, weak demand and intensified market competition, the automotive industry is experiencing a severe winter.Benz(Mercedes-Benz) This severe reality was revealed in the recently announced performance report.Due to the decline in sales, especially the sales of high -end models with higher profits, the company's sales and net profit in the second quarter fell year -on -year.
● Sales in the second quarter 367.4 100 million euros (chose 2884.02 RMB 100 million), a decrease year -on -year 3.9%；
● Pre -interest tax in the second quarter 40.4 100 million euros (currently 317.13 RMB 100 million), a decrease year -on -year 19%；
● Net profit in the second quarter 30.6 100 million euros (currently 240.2 RMB 100 million), a decrease year -on -year 16%。
1, Mercedes-Mercedes -Benz's financial performance
In the second quarter of this year, Mercedes -Benz's sales revenue decreased year -on -year3.9%, In the first half of the year, the decline in sales was4.1%The net profit of the second and first year of the second quarter decreased respectively.15.9%and20.5%EssenceEven the Mercedes -Benz of a luxury car is still under tremendous pressure in the current economic environment.
The core passenger car department has been realized in the second quarter10.2%The sales profit margin is lower than the same period last year13.5%EssenceAfter the adjustment in the second quarter28100 million euros, declined27.5%。
Relying on high -end market strategies is difficult in the economic downturn -Mercedes -Benz faces challenges in maintaining profit margins, especially when the sales of high -end models have declined.
Therefore, Mercedes-Mercedes -Benz lowered its annual profit margin expectations of its passenger vehicle department, especially in the Chinese market.It is expected that the adjustment profit margin after this year will be in10-11%Between it, lower than before10-12%The expected scope.
In contrast, its commercial vehicle (truck, van, etc.) departments' sales profit margin targets will be raised to14-15%Before12-14%, After all, the commercial vehicle departments are good, but after all, the sales volume is limited, and the performance of the passenger car department is still the key to the overall performance.
Zhongtezla said that this is a huge technical milestone.
4680The significance of batteries is too important to Tesla.
So although Tesla2024YearQ2As soon as the financial report came out, the stock price plummeted, but of which4680The delivery details of the battery are still shining.
In the financial report, Tesla said,4680BatteryQ2The delivery volume increased from the previous quarter50%EssenceIn addition, Tesla has successfully created the first use of stem electrode technology and equipped with equipment on mass production equipment.CybertruckEssenceTesla said this is a huge technical milestone.
Answer the investor's about4680In the question of mass production progress, Tesla said, equipped4680BatteryCybertruckPeriodic capacity is1400Over the vehicle.In the future, by further reducing costs and gradually achieving the cost -parity target set at the end of the year, production capacity will further rise.CybertruckIt is expected to achieve profitability at the end of the year.
according to4680The initial plan of the battery, Musk's ideal is to reduce the battery cost50%EssenceIt was previously rumored that Tesla is considering stopping in TexasGiga Texasfactory produced4680Battery, now it seems,4680The goal of the battery is realized step by step.
So, can domestic companies keep up?
Double dry method has become?
Tesla2020New Year Battery Day officially launched4680Battery, at the time, the main expectation effect was that the single capacity was improved5Beyond, power improvement6Double, increase mileage increase16%,EveryKWhCore cost decrease14%。
but,4680The development process is difficult.full5In the year, so far, the Texas Factory cannot produce in total5000Thousand4680Battery, compared to2023Year180The sales of 10,000 vehicles can be said to be a cup of water.to this end,4680The person in charge of the battery resigned (there was a saying that it was cut by Musk).
However, at this financial report conference,4680The battery obviously ushered in a huge turnaround and made a breakthrough in technical.
4680The more important technology on the battery is the dual -dry method (dry positive electrode and dry negative electrode).Because if you want to achieve the cost of cost at the end of the year or the cost goal of the third -party purchase, the dual method is the fundamental way.
It is reported that Tesla plans this yearQ4The use of dry electrode technology for production will greatly reduce costs and achieve realization4680The original goal of the battery plan.(Dry method electrode technologyIt's Tesla2019In order2.18$ 100 million acquisitionMaxwellAnd obtained)
Earlier, Tesla has solved the production problem of dry negative electrodes.Because the negative electrode is a more soft graphite material, it is easier to press it.Soon mass production.However, because the positive electrode is a metal such as nickel cobalt with high hardness, the positive electrode of the dry method has also become mass production4680Difficulty of battery.
However, this time it seems that Tesla eventually solved the problem of the positive ride.The problem of the positive pole of the dry method is solved,4680Soon.
Specifically, there are foreign network reports before, Korean companiesPNTSigning a large order for the supply of electrode process equipment with Tesla.and,PNTThe production of the first batch of dry equipment has been completed. At present, it has been delivered to the Texas plant.The dry equipment used by Tesla before was GermanySaueressingCompany provided.
Musk initially4680The setting goal is2021Annual production,2022Annual production capacity reaches100GWhAlthough late, it is still.And my article "4680"Battery, can't stop at all", also said, according to the principle of firstality, Tesla still only accelerates4680Evolution.
According to Tesla's public content, many things can be confirmed.One of them was revealed by the public account only. Last year10In the month, I learned about Teslagan's positive entryCSample, mass production efficiency50rice/minIt seems accurate now.
And, dual dry methodMass production4680Started, and the goal is from the level of climbing to the negative method in the fourth quarter.However, although the dual -drying method can be logically lower and the cost of preparation will be greatly reduced, but the yield of the product still needs to climb, and it should not be too fast.
According to South KoreaLSAnalysis of Securities Researcher An Heye, Teslades' factory cumulative production5000Thousand4680Battery, but the finished product rate is still poor20%(That is, only80%To.Even from80%Starting rising, it is also unable to ignore the opponent.
Of course, Musk's bulls are about to be realized, which also puts pressure on domestic enterprises and has to be accelerated.
How to deal with shock waves
What are the subversion and impact of the large -scale mass production of the double dry method?
The cost of lithium batteries can be achieved lower than the current lithium battery cost50%EssenceThis allows the dream of further reducing the cost of battery preparation.The previous experience could not be used again.
The implementation of the dual dry method also means that the energy consumption of dry method is saved38~40%The goal is available, this is mainly because there is no way to do itNMP(One of the most commonly used lithium battery auxiliary materials isPVDFThe solvent of the binder) does not require large -scale recycling devices.No longer useNMPThe manufacturing cost can also decrease a lot.
In addition, in this financial report, we still see4680The battery production line is already in useOptimusHumanoid robot, this is also a very important cost reduction signal.
we know,4680The battery is the core factor that it can promote the mass production of cheap models, and it is also the source of its ability to continue to increase the gross profit margin or fight the price war.Today, humanoid robots have also been on, and it seems that good plays have begun.
In terms of capacity, according to the current Tesla4680The production capacity planning, a total of three major production factories and an experimental factory, namely: Kato Factory, Front Factory, planned production capacity100GWhThe Nevada factory, and planning capacity100GWhTexas factory.
At present, the Tesla's Texas factory may be accelerated, and the other three factories have also kept up (currently in the debugging and installation stage).LGESHarbinya,These capacity development will be sufficient to change the entire industrial structure.
In addition, from Tesla andLGESPlan2024Signed a value in the second half of the year6Trillions of won (approximately41Tesla's plan has not changed anymore to purchase the electrodes of large -scale purchase of large -scale home battery units.
According to the South Korean Economic Daily, the delivery of the electrode to Tesla will be from2025The beginning of the year, the time6to7Year.The agreed number will be enough for each year130~14010,000 electric vehicles provide battery.
Take a comprehensive know, Tesla is in4680The battery rushed on the road, although it was late, it would not reach.
As a reference, in terms of cost, domestic ternary lithium46The price of large cylindrical cells is0.65~0.7Yuan/WhLeft and right, it is a square shellLFPBattery price is near2Double levels, the cost cannot be competed on the same stage, and the cost is needed.Although the OEMs and other OEMs such as BMW, Volkswagen, GM, Weilai, Jianghuai, Changan, etc. are following the layout46The large cylindrical battery project still has no ideal effect.
And this time the financial report will give up4680The situation changed.Obviously, Tesla has overcome the technical difficulties in the production link of the pan -polar ear cutting, welding, and uneven coating of the stem electrode.Although I can't reach the ideal300PPM(every minute300One), but it has made great progress.
Under the shock of this information, in addition to Weilai and Hive Energy, there are also Yiyi Lithium Energy, which has already been mass -produced, Bike battery, planned8Bar production line12GWhIn the Ningde era, doLFPof4680BYD, Guoxuan Hi -Tech, Xinwangda, Penghui Energy, Chuangming Battery, Haichen Energy Storage, Wei Lan New Energy, China Innovation Energy, China Innovation Energy, and China Innovation EnergyNew pressure and motivation.
However, an expert in the industry also told me that domestic information is just good. Now how many are there really invested a large amount of capital on the dry electrode?The basic process principles are understood, and the equipment is also multi -level rollers. Real mass production depends on efficiency, good product rate and denomination densityCOVEssenceThe test machine is fine. The production (involved) formula, technology, and equipment are not Chongyang Mei. When Tesla gets out, let's learn.Compared with the data, the data is still declining.
2, Decline in electric vehicle demand
The demand for the electric vehicle market declines-Mercedes -Benz's influence is particularly significant.In the first half of this year, the sales of the company's passenger vehicle department decreased year -on -year6%Among them, electric vehicle sales have fallen17%。
Mercedes -Benz has adjusted its electrification strategy and is preparing to invest more funds on the rich internal combustion engine cars.The transformation of this strategy reflects the company's pragmatic attitude when dealing with market changes.
Due to the imperfect charging facilities and high costs, nearly 30 % of electric car owners worldwide are considering returning to internal combustion engine cars, and the uncertainty of market demand is still very high.
Mercedes-Mercedes -Benz announced suspensionMB.EA-LargeThe development project of pure electric platform meansGLS、SThe level and the Maybach series will not see pure electric models for the time being. Mercedes -Benz takes a cautious attitude in the face of changes in market demand and adopt a cautious attitude when facing the challenge of electrical transformation.As a result, investment in related R & D is also affected.
R & D projects of highly invested pure electric high -end models have naturally become the target of cutting. In the field of pure electric vehicles, Mercedes-Mercedes -Benz can't see the hope of getting returns.
For Mercedes -Benz, it is even more difficult for its attractiveness in the field of fuel vehicles. It may also be weakened. Consumers may not have high interest in Mercedes -Benz pure electric models, but the sales of traditional fuel models are also declining.
Even if the price reduction has been significantly reduced, Mercedes-Mercedes can only barely maintain market share.Insufficient innovation, lack of new ideas, and excessive marketing models, Mercedes -Benz is difficult to break through its own style.
summary
existIn the current cold winter of the global automotive market, Mercedes -Benz faces multiple challenges.Fall sales, decline in profit margins, weaken electric vehicle demandThe fierce market competition has a profound impact on the company's financial performance and strategic layout.It is not easy to make money in the automotive industry!
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