The Photovoltaic Industry Accelerates The Survival Of The Fittest

2023In the year, the photovoltaic application market in my country exceeded expected, and the growth rate of new installations in the application side was near150%, The output of all aspects of the manufacturing end increased year -on -year64%, The output value of photovoltaic manufacturing (excluding inverters) exceeds more than1.75Trillion yuan.In the future, my country's photovoltaic application market will continue to maintain a high position.Wang Bohua Wang Bohua, Honorary Chairman of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, recently held in the photovoltaic industry2023Annual Development Review and2024The annual situation outlook seminar said.However, he also pointed out that the industry is facing a serious situation of supply and demand, and the survival of the fittest will accelerate in the future.All parties need to review the situation and take advantage of the trend.

2023In the year, my country's photovoltaic application market beyond expected development

2023In the year, my country's photovoltaic industry achieved bright results.The scale of domestic manufacturing and supply side has continued to expand, and the export volume reached a new high。

Look from the manufacturing side，2023In yearexist64%above.Among them, polysilicon outputovertake14310,000 tons, increase year -on -yearlong66.9%, Add new production capacity to be further released，nThe proportion of silicon materials increases month by month; the output of silicon wafers is up toarrive622GW, Year -on -year increaselong67.5%The market share of large -sized silicon wafers has further increased, and the shape of the silicon wafers is developing diverse development, rectangular, and micro -rectangular; battery production isarrive545GW, Year -on -year increaselong64.9%，nType battery（TOPConandHJTHeterogeneity) market share rapid increase; component output reachesarrive499GW, Year -on -year increaselong69.3%, Power in the componentStep up,nThe product market demand is strong.

It is worth mentioning that the conversion efficiency of photovoltaic crystal silicon batteries in my country has steadily improved.PERC、TOPCon、HJTThe average conversion efficiency of heterogeneous knot batteries reaches the average conversion efficiency23.4%、25.0%and25.2%。

From the development of the application market,2023New domestic photovoltaic installation machine216.88GW, Year -on -year increased148.1%The highest record of the newly added machine volume again, as of the end2023In the year, the cumulative scale of photovoltaic installations reached609.5GWEssenceFrom the perspective of the new installation type, the newly -concentrated photovoltaic installation machine exceeds the distributed formula, exceeding110GW, Occupy more than50%; Distributed photovoltaic new installation machine is close100GWEssenceWang Bohua's analysis pointed out that the reason why the newly installed installation of centralized photovoltaics grows rapidly because of the centralized grid of large base projects; and some new changes have undergone a distributed photovoltaic market, and the distributed growth rate of industrial and commercial distribution is faster; distributed distribution of households;The market center of gravity moves south.

From the point of view of exports, the export volume of photovoltaics reached a new high.2023The export volume of the year, battery, and components increased year -on -year respectively.93.6% 、65.5%、37.9%;484.8For 100 million US dollars, the export market is more diversified.Among them, Europe is still the most important export market, accounting for about the total exports42%;36%rise to40%EssenceIt is worth noting that in terms of component exports, the number of export markets of more than 100 million US dollars7The export market of more than 500 million US dollars is added4indivual.The Netherlands, Brazil, Spain, and India still maintain the top four export market status, and the Belgium, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan market are among the top ten.

However, as the prices of major photovoltaic products have declined significantly, polysilicon and component products have decreased more than more than50%, Also leading to the overall exports to increase the price increase.

2024The number of new photovoltaic installations in the global photovoltaic year will reach390-430GW

From the perspective of global needs, the photovoltaic industry will still maintain rapid development.2030The global renewable energy installation capacity increased to the year3By reached a consensus, at that time, the global renewable energy installation capacity will be at least reached at least11000GWEssenceAmong them, photovoltaic installation cap2022Year1055GWIncrease2030Year5457GWEssenceWang Bohua said at the meeting.

China Photovoltaic Industry Association predicts that under conservative situations,2024In the year, the global photovoltaic installation machine will be the same as last year, reaching the contract390GW, Optimistic situation can still reach a contract430GW。

At the same time, the diversified development of the global photovoltaic installation machine market will further accelerate.2022Year, globalGWLevel markets are26Compared with2021Annual increase9This is mainly based on European countries;2023Year, globalGWThe level market has further increased to32In this way, the new markets are mostly in the Belt and Road countries.Wang Bohua predicts,2024YearGWGrade market will reach39indivual,2025YearGWGrade market will reach53indivual.

Due to problems such as elimination, land use, and cost, the growth rate of new photovoltaic installations in my country this year may slow down.Under conservative situations, the new installation of my country's photovoltaic will decline compared to last year, and190 GW; And in an optimistic situation, it has increased slightly year -on -year, reached220 GW。

However, Wang Bohua still maintains an optimistic attitude towards the future development of the industry.Although there is a certain number of installed capacity last year, in the future, my country's photovoltaic application market will continue to maintain a high -level operating state.Wang Bohua said.

Regarding the issue of the industry's attention, Wang Bohua suggested to guide the improvement of the level of green power application and strengthen the deep integration of photovoltaic and other industries.Through the exploration of photovoltaic hydrogen and ammonia, methanol, etc.At the same time, further develop key technologies such as industrial industries such as storage, transportation, transportation, hydrogen and derivatives, further improve the application environment of green hydrogen and derivative products, and explore the economy of 离 矿 and oil fields.

In addition, with the frequent introduction of the power reform policy, new energy such as photovoltaic sources participating in power marketization has become an inevitable trend, which has also triggeredThe uncertainty of the yield rate of photovoltaic power stations has increased, and the yield calculation model urgently needs to change。

Industry shuffle and differentiation have begun

While my country's photovoltaic industry has made a progressive progress, there is also a clue of concerns.

Wang Bohua pointed out，2023The annual photovoltaic industry is facing a severe supply and demand situation, and this situation has continued to this year, and it is different from the past. This is the severe situation that the demander is still developing under high -speed development.

2022Beginning the year, the company's willingness to expand production was very strong, resulting in a large scale of existing production capacity.2023Year4Since the month, the price of the photovoltaic industry chain has fallen all the way, especially in the fourth quarter, which has fallen very much, which has caused a sharp decline in corporate profitability.In Wang Bohua's view, a reasonable decline in price is a good thing for industry development, but last year's industrial chain price decline was caused by many unreasonable factors.On the one hand, with the significant increase in production capacity, the supply increases, and the panic price reduction of some enterprises is superimposed; on the other hand, the phenomenon of low prices in bidding brings in -price inside.

At the same time, the photovoltaic industry's shuffle and differentiation have begun.Wang Bohua said that the current differentiation of the photovoltaic industry is mainly reflected in the three aspects of production capacity differentiation, level of profit level differentiation, and price differentiation, and backward production capacity will be accelerated.Statistical62There are still among the listed companies in the home photovoltaic sale43The home has maintained a profit, but the lossed listing photovoltaic companies have increased compared to last year.5Home; in terms of capacity utilization, take the component link as an example.2The overall operating rate of monthly component enterprises is23%And the operating rate of the top nine component enterprises is about the approximately50%EssenceWang Bohua said.

In his opinion, this fluctuation has a certain relationship with the blind investment promotion of some local governments. At the same time, many companies have ignored the competitive intensity of the photovoltaic industry and blindly expanded or influx.

It is expected that the industry's future survival of the fittest will accelerate, and all parties will take advantage of the situation and take advantage of the trend.Wang Bohua suggested that in the central governmentAt the level, it is necessary to speed up the construction of a unified market in the country, regulate the investment promotion behavior of local governments, and restrict local finance or state -owned or state -ownedAssetThe proportion of gold contribution; local investment promotion needs to be based on the local resource endowment and industrial chain conditions. Blind investment promotion not only cannot achieve development, but may increase the local fiscal burden.

At the level of enterprise, manufacturing companies need to fully understand the characteristics of the photovoltaic industry's rapid technical iteration, fast industrial growth, fast cost decline, and fast market changes.The mechanism attaches more importance to the company's supply and quality, and avoid simply low -cost bids.