AIThe frenzy promotes the rise of memory, and the capital expenditure of memory factories in the past two years, Morgan Stanley, Wall Street Investment Bank, shouted,DRAMThe market is ushered in the "super cycle" that has not been seen before, the standard typeDRAMThe gap will be even betterHBM, The price also rises the ship, the estimated season of the third quarter is increased15％。

The international large manufacturer strives to invest in high -frequency memory (HBM) Consumption of huge production capacity, plus the lack of capital expenditure in the past two years and the lack of new wafer manufacturers of the wafer plant, which leads to a standard typeDRAMSupply decrease sharply.Morgan Stanley (Damo) expects, standard typeDRAMThe gap will be even betterHBMThe price will follow, and the estimation of the price in the third quarter15％。

Coincidentally, the UBS Securities Report is similar to Damo's view, revealing that the international manufacturers have rushed to enterHBMStandardDRAMCauses the production capacity to be crowded out forDRAMThe market to provide motivation for the super cycle has become the consensus of a foreign capital circle.

　　HBMThe capacity of the required crystal is standardDRAMTwice of the current stageHBMThe yield is far lower than the standard typeDRAM, As to consume more capacity, plusIn the past two years, the capital expenditure of memory factories in the past two years has led to limited new production capacity.

Damo said, becauseHBMStandardDRAMThe capacity of production capacity is continuously existed, re -re -enrollmentAIsmart phone,AI PCCreate additional production capacity,DRAMThe market is expected to face more serious supply shortages.expected2025Annual standardDRAMThe gap will be rare23%, Push upDRAMThe price rises.Damo pointed out, withHBMThe market share is rising, and the overall market supply will be more significant.

third episodeDRAMandNANDThe price of the chip is estimated to be rising, and the high increase of Damo's raising is13%and20%, An increase of more than 60 %.Big international factorySKHylos and Samsung continue to growHBM、DRAMProduction capacity, estimate the third seasonDRAMContract price season increase10～15％。

　WithDRAMThe super cycle comes up, and the quotation increase is beyond expectations, which is expected to become the operating fire types of Taiwan factories such as South Asia, Shiqi, and ADAC.

Comprehensive price increase？

South Korea's leading chip manufacturer Samsung Electronics and Electronics SK Hylos and Japan Kioxia Has been increasing NAND Output of flash chips.After this year's memory chip demand rebounds, the industry is from the industry NAND The situation of the excess flash memory was eased, so this transformation occurred.

But except for high capacity for artificial intelligence data centers NAND In addition, the demand for general products has not been restored.Worry NAND The increase in output may limit future prices.

According to Nikkei News 6 moon 17 Daily report, Japanese memory chip manufacturer Kioxia The production reduction was nearly ended, and the output of its four -day city and north factories was increased to full load.Due to the chip manufacturer 3D NAND The demand decreases,Kioxia exist 2022 Year 10 Monthly cuts output 30%。Kioxia Is the fourth largest in the world 3D NAND manufacturer.

　　NAND Flash chips are used in smartphones and other electronic devices to store data. Last year, due to weak demand, they were trapped in the predicament of excess supply.To cope NAND The market where prices plummeted are too desired, Samsung Electronics,SK Hyloshe Kioxia The major chip manufacturers have cut output.Last year, Samsung Electronics and SK Hylos Factory NAND Flash memory capacity dropped to a time 20-30%EssenceAccording to reports, Samsung's factory operating rate in Xi'an, China has declined 10%EssenceWestern data and beautyLight also reduced production and reduced production capacity to 50% the following.

Large -scale reduction of production has relieved excess supply to a certain extent, resulting in NAND The price of flash memory rises.The demand is recovering, especially for it AI Large capacity of data center NAND flash memory.Market research company TrendForce Forecast, the second quarter of this year NAND The price of flash memory will rise year -on -year 13% to 18%EssenceThis year is expected NAND The flash memory market revenue will reach 624 100 million US dollars, an increase of last year 63%。

Samsung Electronics,SK Hylos, armor and western data accountingAccording to the world NAND Flash market 80% The above shares are currently restoring production.Samsung NAND Flash capacity has risen 70% Left and right, and SK Hylos is increasing high capacity NAND Product (such as high capacity eSSD) Production.third biggest NAND Flash memory manufacturer's western data increases its production utilization rate to to 90% about.

New Korean Securities Analyst Li Jingjia said: It is expected that the production capacity of the Samsung Xi'an plant in the second half of this year will rise to 80%。

Some worry, the rapid growth of yield may exceed demand, thereby suppressing NAND The price of flash memory rises.Jin Yangpeng, a researcher at the Korean Institute of Industrial Economic and Trade, said: In addition NANDIt's hard to say the whole NAND The market is recovering.The sudden surge in yield may be low NAND price.

Dram will usher in a super cycle?